Probabilities of getting a pair, flush and other poker combinations. Probabilities of combinations in poker - practice and theory Sets from the flop probability calculation

Let's refresh our memory. have good implied odds(implied odds of the pot) means to have a good ratio investments(cost of calling) on ​​one street to potentially win big on subsequent streets when we cover our strong hand.

Translation of pages: 182-187 out of 532

Let's continue the conversation in the context of Example 45 from the last part. The reason I chose these hands to call is because they are a combination of two factors (both strength and implied odds). We can call them in part because they will often flop a strong hand against our opponent's opening range (over pairs on low boards), and they also have another bonus - implied odds. They can flop a set!

The more often we can take a decent portion of our opponent's stack with our hand, the better our implied odds will be.

Probability of catching a set

How often will we flop a set with a pocket pair?

This is a good reason to dive into mathematics for a while. If you want to get confused, you can return to the section , where we looked at the topic of cumulative negative probability, and try to manually calculate the probability of flopping a third card to our pocket pair, and then check if you did it correctly. Or, if you're lazy, you can skip straight to the answer, but I wouldn't. This is not the choice of a real grinder! Of course you can read final result, but my goal and the goal of this manual is not just to give you dry material, but to give you good logical thinking.

Solving problems on your own is the secret of any successful poker player, and therefore I strongly recommend that you do all the calculations manually.

Now to the math.

Preflop we have 50 unknown cards, since we see only two of our own. We have 3 opportunities to catch one of the two cards we need. To find the probability of the desired card being drawn (P), it is necessary to calculate the probability of their “not appearing” (-P), and subtract the resulting negative probability from 100%. This is the cumulative negative probability that we looked at earlier.

• The first card will not be ours (-p1): 48/50 or 96% .
• If the first card is not ours, then the second will also not be ours (-p2): 47/49, or in 95,96% .
• If the first two cards are not ours, then the third will not be ours either (-p3): 46/48, or 98,83% once.
• None of the three cards will be ours (-P): (0.96*0.9596*0.9583) = 88,2% cases.
• P: 100% – 88.2% = 11,8%.
• We will hit a set or four of a kind on the flop 11.8% of the time.

Well, we will hit a set with these hands much less often than we will hit over pairs. So why not forget about all the math then? The point is that when we do get into a set, we will beat the vast majority of hands (if not all) in our opponent's range, and even those that he wants to stack.

Our hand will be so powerful when we hit a set that it will be worth the rarity of its occurrence. Moreover, sets are very disguised hands. Set does not need, for example, 3 diamonds on the table, signaling danger to the opponent, as is always the case with flushes. This means we can potentially extract more value from over pairs and top pairs than if we had a more obvious flush.

Ultimately, the combination of implied odds and hand strength [ – ] makes these hands great for calling.

Answer: Call 3bb.

With these pocket pairs, we lose the ability to frequently flop hands stronger than our opponent's. If we don't hit a set with these pockets, it will be difficult to win a decent pot on any kind of flop. And all because of the so-called “curse of small pocket pairs”.

Reference: "The Curse of Small Pocket Pairs": When our small pocket misses the flop and we're in this moment behind, then we will have everything 2 outs to improve. And if we don’t hit and are ahead, then the opponent will have at least 6 outs, to pull us to the river.

Thus, when we miss the set, the situation will look pretty sad anyway. The old saying goes: “No set, no beta.” And there is some truth in it, however, not everything will be as pessimistic as this primitive slogan says.

However, in most cases we will still fold when we miss our set, and therefore we will need even higher implied odds than with [ – ] hands.

Calls with these hands are also called "set mining", since catching a set on the flop is our main goal.

Factors that determine implied odds

What makes good implied odds? Let's break this question down into a table of factors.

Good factors	Bad Factors
Small investment	Big investment
We will often hit a strong hand on the flop	We rarely hit a strong hand on the flop.
Enemy range is strong	Enemy range is weak
The stacks are deep	Stacks are short
Opponent doesn't fold	Opponent folds
Multipot	Heads-up pot
Good position	Bad position

The first two factors relate our call price to the frequency of catching a strong hand. By looking at these factors we will form a general idea of ​​how much we need to win when we hit our set. Other factors will help us determine whether we can achieve this goal.

Let's look at these factors one by one in the context of Example 45, and imagine we have a pocket pair.

1. Investment size: Our investment is only 3bb; it's quite small.
2. Probability of catching a strong hand: We'll flop a set 11.8% of the time, or a little more than 1 in 9 times.

These factors will serve as a kind of guideline that will tell us how much we need to win in order for our call to break even. If we lose 3bb every time we miss a set, then to recoup this investment we need to win at least 9*3 = 27bb when we miss a set. Due to the presence of rake and scenarios where we will push our hand harder, this ratio can be rounded up to 1 to 10. And then we come to the next rule.

Set mining rule: To call a set profitably, we need to win on average 10x from our call when we catch a set.

This rule will help us quickly assess whether our mining set will bring us +EV.

So, we have a goal: we need to win on average 30 bb, when we catch sets to pay off our preflop calls. Now let's use other factors to estimate whether we will be able to achieve this.

1. Opponent's Range Strength: Villain's range will be strong in this case because he opens with UTG. Against the top 14% of hands, we can expect to get a good payout for our set. If our opponent's range were wider, we would more often run into weak hands and air, with which he would hardly want to pay us.
2. Stack Size: Stacks in our case are 100 bb. That is, each player has enough money behind us relative to our call (3bb). If the opponent had a short stack, the value of the set mining would drop significantly due to the low “client’s solvency.”
3. Opponent's tendency to fold: The opponent looks like a pretty tough reg. He will fold strong hands more often postflop than a fish. Of course, we would prefer to play better against the 14% range of the fish, but this is not enough of a problem to make our mining set negative.
4. Number of players in the pot: There are 4 more players behind us, so there is a good chance of getting a multipot. This will increase our implied odds by an order of magnitude, since the number of opponents increases the likelihood that one of them will catch on the flop good hand when we have a set.
5. Position: We are in position on the preflop raiser, which is very good. As we know from the previous chapter, position will help us extract maximum value from our strong hands, making sure we don't miss out on any streets of value. If we were out of position, we would have to choose our line of play among the less attractive lines (check/call, check/raise). In position, by simply calling a continuation bet on a dry board, we can expect to receive bluff bets from our opponent, and also will not give our opponent free card, if he suddenly wants to get to showdown cheaply.

Overall, the situation is good enough to win an average of 30bb per set. When we call preflop, there will already be 7.5bb in the pot, even if everyone else folds. And we will only have to take 22.5 big blinds from the enemy. And this goal looks quite achievable in a position against a strong UTG range.

Answer: Call 3bb.

These hands are significantly worse than the ones we just looked at. Small couples will more often suffer from dead set-to-set situations, which will always end very badly. In addition, pairs [ – ] had at least some chance of getting an overpair on the flop, while these same hands do not have it at all.

Calling with these pockets can be quite acceptable when there is a fish behind or on the UTG. But in this case, against a solid reg and when there are 4 more strong players behind you, from whom you can potentially get a squeeze, I would not set mine with these small pockets. With hands at least occasionally you can try to play postflop in case of a miss, which cannot be said about .

Answer: Fold.

These hands, like [ – ], are also a combination of strength and implied odds. They can flop strong hands, or more often, draws to strong hands, but they also have top pair potential. However, this potential alone won't be enough to justify our preflop calls, and that's because domination problems. Therefore, here we can only rely on implied odds. And in this case they will be much worse than in the case of pocket pairs:

• 77 will hit a set on the flop 11,8% cases.
• JTs will fall into two pairs + in 5,6% cases.

If we also take into account hitting powerful woods (12 outs+), then this is another plus 6,9% . If you add here the usual draws, such as a flush draw (9 outs) and an open-ended straight draw (8 outs), then this 13,2% . But these hands will still be less valuable.

In general, we will fall into strong hands and firewood ~25% , but of course flush draws, trips and two pairs won't be nearly as good as sets. Sets are more hidden and powerful hands, and on average they will bring us much more value. Therefore, we should be more careful when calling medium and large suited connectors, relying on implied odds alone.

This group of hands is not good enough to call in this situation. We need more favorable factors to make calling with these hands acceptable. In particular, we should expect multi-pot situations with weak players. As your opponent's opening range expands, these hands can easily become playable. For example, in a BU vs CO spot, calling with them will be quite normal.

Answer: Fold.

And obviously, the weaker our speculative hand is, the more favorable factors we will need to call with it. Although these hands are much more playable compared to the same ones, their potential for catching a good pair on the flop is much lower. Therefore, they are not suitable for calling an open raise with in Example 45.

Answer: Fold.

Many people who know poker only by hearsay believe that anyone can win at poker and all it takes is a little luck. Indeed, poker is interesting because it is impossible to predict in advance who will win. A striking example was the victory Qui Nguyen in the final event of the WSOP series in 2016.

Luck plays in poker enough significant role, but not decisive. After all, every year the number of poker players increases, and the world's largest tournaments are constantly replenished with new participants, but the same people are always among the prizes. They may not win regularly, but consistently reach the final rounds and receive a good monetary reward. And the point is not that they are luckier than others.

The thing is that they have good mathematical abilities, soberly assess the situation and can quite accurately calculate the probabilities in poker. And thanks to their skills they have good chances get far enough in the tournament, where in an equal fight they can lose to no less skilled players, but with better cards.

No one knows which card will appear on the board next, but after analyzing probability of getting a combination in poker, a participant can estimate his chances of winning a particular hand. Today, in order to become a good player, you do not need to be a mathematical genius and carry out complex mathematical operations in your head. Everything has long been calculated and summarized in specific tables. A good memory is very necessary for a poker player, and you can start training it by remembering what the probability of getting draws in poker or a strong combination is.

If the player takes part in online poker tournament, then count probability of making a combination in poker it gets even easier. Programs have long been developed and exist that help instantly calculate the chances of success in the game, and for the required map to appear. They show the real picture, but even if the chances are 80% to 20%, this does not mean that these 80 percent will be decisive. That's the beauty of poker. Even with all the advanced developments, it is impossible to give a 100% guarantee of success.

Probability of getting a pair

The most common poker combination is a pair. It is quite strong in the poker hierarchy and is also not as difficult to collect as flush or straight. Many people calculate probabilities poker combinations since preflop and the appearance of pocket cards. Particularly lucky players may immediately land a pocket pair.

The probability of a pair in poker at the pocket cards stage is quite low. The total number of pocket pairs is 13, and the chances of such a local success do not reach 6%. The calculation is carried out using simple mathematical operations.

We know that there are 13 pairs in total, while there are 52 cards in a poker deck. Divide the number of pairs by the total number of cards and multiply by 12 and 51. Twelve means number of remaining pairs in the deck or in the hands of other participants, and fifty-one is the number of all cards minus one that has already been dealt to the player. Some quick math shows that the probability of a pair in poker preflop is no greater than in one hand out of seventeen.

Of course, ideally it would be nice to get a pair of aces preflop. But the chances of this are negligible - less than 0.5%. Pair probability in poker on the flop or rever it increases significantly. On the flop, in 32% of cases you can make a pair, and two pairs at once, one of which is a pocket – 16%. On the river the chances are even higher. A pair occurs in 46% of hands, and two pairs, if one of them is pocket, in 40%.

Flush probability

A flush is higher in the hierarchy of poker combinations than a pair. It is much more difficult to assemble it, but if you succeed, then the chances of success are very high. In order to collect a flush, the player must have combination of 5 cards of the same suit. The value of the cards does not matter, but if several players managed to collect a flush at once, then the winner is the one with the highest card.

The probability of a flush in poker is very small. Pocket cards play an important role. Naturally, they should be of the same color. If a participant has a pair, then the option with a flush should be immediately discarded. The chances of a flush on the flop are already less than one percent. But if you figure it out, what is the probability of draws in poker for a flush, then it will be a little more than 10%.

If a poker player hopes for flush on the river, then you need to understand that in best case scenariochances of success no more than 7% and this is provided that he has two pocket cards of the same suit. If pocket cards of different colors, then the chances of a flush are no more than 2%.

Street odds

Street can also in 95% of cases guarantee the poker player success in the hand. This combination also consists of five cards, but in a clear sequence, the chain of which should not be interrupted. The Ace in this hand can be the highest card or the lowest.

A straight can be eliminated on the flop, if your cards contain a pair or random cards of different or the same suit. Random cards imply that the gap in card value will exceed 3 cards, and it cannot be replenished with the help of three community cards.

Chances of collecting straight will depend on the gap in connector values. If the gaps are from three to 1 values, then the probabilities of a poker combination range from 0.64% to 1%. If the pocket cards are consistent, then a straight draw on the flop can be hit with a probability of almost 10%.

On the river the participant has the greatest chances on the street with two cards of consecutive value. They make up 10%. As you can see, the probabilities in poker of making a straight, even under the most optimal hands, are very low and do not give you the opportunity to hope for success more than in one out of 10 cases.

Results

A player's mathematical chances of making a hand in poker increase as they move down the hierarchy of hands. Also, a lot will depend on what pocket cards the player received and what type of poker is played at the table. Eg, probability of combinations appearing in five card poker will be calculated separately at each stage of the game as cards appear on the board. We advise you not to try to constantly collect Royal Flush or Four of a Kind, because in the long run it will only bring losses. The probabilities of such combinations in poker are very low.

Bad periods in poker happen to everyone. Every player sooner or later goes through downswings of varying intensity. But the more you understand how bad or good things can go, the better you will be at dealing with long downswings and other variance derivatives. How brutal can the variance be if you're a winning player? It really all depends on your actual win rate and standard deviation in the big blind per 100 hands. Knowing these two variables, you can figure out possible scenarios using a variance calculator.

Winning players with low win rates, such as below 3bb/100, have downswings and periods of breaking even much more frequently and generally for longer periods of time than players with high win rates. The former also have a high risk of catching a strong downswing (more than 20 buy-ins).

If you're interested, you can play around with a calculator like this, plugging in different values ​​for win rate and standard deviation. You can find the latter indicator in any tracking program such as Holdem Manager or Poker Tracker, while knowing your real win rate is sometimes quite difficult, since both the game and your skill are constantly changing, and the only thing we can do is do assumptions based on a certain length of hands. In our example, we took a segment of 200k hands at the NL100 limit.

1.5bb/100 - Near-zero player

Over a period of 200k hands, your expected winnings could be $3000

Probability of losing everything - 21%

76%

71%

2.5 bb/100 - Winning player

$5000

Probability of losing everything - 9,4%

Probability of 30k+ hands falling to zero - 58%

The probability of catching a downswing for 20 buy-ins is 47%

5bb/100 - Strong winning player

Over a period of 200k hands the expected winnings are: $10000

Probability of losing everything - 0,4%

Probability of 30k+ hands falling to zero - 30%

The probability of catching a downswing for 20 buy-ins is 20%

8bb/100 - Top regular

Over a period of 200k hands the expected winnings are: $16000

Probability of losing everything - 0%

Probability of 30k+ hands falling to zero - 9,3%

The probability of catching a downswing for 20 buy-ins is 5%

Offline vs online

In order to play 200k hands, an online player playing more than two tables simultaneously will need only 500 hours or about 42 12-hour workdays if he plays about 400 hands per hour.

To play the same segment for an offline player, you will need 6667 hours or 556 12-hour working days. So, even if we are talking about a winning offline player, there is a possibility that for several months or even a year he can play to zero.

Unless you're a top limit regular, you'll often experience long periods of downswings and breaking even. Even for a player with a win rate of 2.5, a downstreak of 20 buy-ins over a period of 200k hands is practically possible half the time.

In the same period, the probability of losing everything for a near-zero player is 20%, and for a player with a win rate of 2.5bb/100 - 10%. This once again shows how insidious variance can be in poker. AND The best way The way to avoid those intense downswings and long stretches of breaking even is to work on your game and improve your win rate.

How to increase your win rate?

Chat on poker forums. Nowadays there are countless of them. Register and ask questions. Read old posts. You can find a lot in them detailed information regarding poker strategies.

Chat with players who are stronger than you and who strive for continuous development.

Create conferences on Skype with your poker friends, where you will discuss strategies and specific situations.

Register on the training site or hire a trainer. This is also very effective method, however, does not come cheap.

Read poker books. Even though most of the advanced information in them is outdated, they can still be useful for learning the basics and mathematics of poker.

Select

If you are Top 2 among best players world, you will still lose to the one who is Top 1.

Your win rate depends on the players you play with. Profit in poker is made thanks to players who are weaker than you. Only play with players that you feel superior to, and quit when you feel otherwise. If you don’t know where to grow next, or you’re just lazy, you can always find a game with less strong players.

The positive outcome of a poker game depends on mathematical calculations. Poker is based on error-free calculations, so the player is not recommended to rely on intuition.

The probability of winning combinations in poker is an assessment of the chances of winning in a particular game. Experts have carefully studied these theories and presented them in special tables. They make it easy to calculate your own acceptable chances and opportunities in the gameplay.

In addition to tables, experts have developed computer programs and applications with the help of which any poker player is able to create an unbiased picture of his personal gaming situation when random cards appear.

In five-card poker, the probability of forming combinations on each street is calculated separately, since the position changes with the addition of new cards to the board. Consequently, the chances of forming the required combination, which are expressed as a percentage, also change.

Probability of combinations preflop

First, let's look at combinations in the poker game with the probability of hitting preflop. In a word, it is necessary to understand the number of different combinations that can be dealt to a gamer preflop. The original deck contains 52 cards. One of them will be handed over to the poker player without fail.

The second card will be one of the 51 cards that remain. Since the order does not matter here, there will be 1326 (52x51:2) different combinations of pocket cards.

Based on the calculation of 4x3:2, a certain pocket pair can be obtained in six variations. In accordance with this, the player will have a certain pair every 221 hands. We obtained this figure based on the calculation 6:1326=1:221. Since any pocket pair will occur every 17 hands, there are 13 legal pairs (221:13).

Any unpaired cards of the same or different suits can be dealt in 16 variations. You can win any two cards of the same suit in 23.5% of cases (12:51), and you can get a pair of cards of one suit or another with a 5.9% chance.

Probability of combinations on the flop

Now we need to consider the probability of hitting poker combinations on the flop. Here the gamer can see three of the five cards. This makes it possible to confidently state that the flop is considered the most significant moment in the theory of probability. Since a huge part of the gameplay is left behind, it is necessary to decide to extend it here.

In the event that a poker player does not have a pair in his hands, then the following chances are provided for gaining strength on the flop:

1. Couple can be hit on the flop with a 26.94% probability.
2. 2.02% on what the poker player will gain Two pairs, where a pair of cards will be revealed on the board, and the third card will correspond to one of those cards that his hands have.
3. Also in 2.02% of cases the poker player will gain two cards that match the board.
4. Collect Trips(when the gamer's card matches the one on the flop) is possible in 1.35% of cases.
5. For education Full House there is only a 0.09% chance.
6. And for the formation Kare only 0.01% remains.

Thus, the probability of getting a boost on the flop without a hole card is exactly 32.4%. The chances of forming a Flash or Straight are not taken into account here.

Odds with a hole card

With a pocket card, the variations on getting one or another combination will be as follows:

1. Two pairs with a pair on the flop and a poker player’s pair – 16.16%.
2. Set – 10,77%.
3. Full house, where the pair is on the table and the match to the gamer’s pair is 0.74%.
4. Full house, where the poker player has a pair and there are three cards of identical rank on the board – 0.25%.
5. Kare – 0,25%.

A player with suited cards can build a Flush on the flop with 0.84% ​​probability. But there is already a 10.94% chance of making a Flush Draw. With cards of different suits, a Flush Draw can be formed in 2.25% of cases.

If a poker player has connectors in his hands, then his chances of making a Straight or Straight Draw from the flop will be as follows:

• Connectors without a hole: Street's formation has a 1.31% chance. Straight Draw formation – 10.45%.
• Connectors with a single hole: Straight – 0.98%, Straight Draw – 0.08%.
• Connectors with a pair of holes: Straight – 0.65%, Straight Draw – 5.22%.
• Connectors with three holes: Straight – 0.33%, Straight Draw – 2.61%.

The probabilities of getting combinations in poker by the river are especially interesting (the turn in few cases becomes decisive). If game process will lead to showdown, then it is with such combinations that the player will need to open. When there is no pair in hands, the chances of strengthening by the river are as follows:

• Becoming the owner of a Pair – 46%.
• Become the owner of Two pairs – 22%.
• Become a Troika owner – 4.5%.
• Becoming the owner of Full House – 2.2%.
• Become the owner of a Four of a Kind – 0.1%.

In the case when a poker player has a pocket card in his hands, then he has the following probabilities for improvement by showdown:

• In 40% of cases he will be able to make two pairs.
• In 12% of cases - Seth.
• In 8.5% of cases he will be able to form a Full House.
• With a 0.84% ​​probability he will be able to collect Four of a Kind.

With a pair of cards of the same suit, he can be 6.6% sure that he will make a Flush by showdown. If only two cards are missing for a Royal Flush, then there is a 0.05% chance that this combination can be obtained before the river. Trying to get a Straight Flush with connections of the same suit, the poker player will have 0.2%. In two percent of cases, you can make a Flush by having cards of different suits in your hands.

There is no need to talk about such combinations as Royal Flush and Straight Flush. The probability of their formation is almost zero. Given the connections, there are the following probabilities for a Street meeting:

• 9.1% – connections without holes.
• 7.8% – connections with a single hole.
• 6.5% – connections with a couple of holes.
• 5.1% – connections with three holes.

The probability of winning combinations in poker is an incredibly important and integral element of poker science. By understanding all the statistical nuances, a poker player will be able not only to prevent risky situations, but will also be able not to miss his chance of luck.

Concept set mining covers the process of calling preflop with a small or medium pocket pair with the goal of flopping a set and winning a big pot. Since with this combination you will almost always be stronger than your opponent, there is a real chance of taking his entire stack. However, you need to engage in set mining with the right approach, otherwise it will only bring losses instead of profits.

Probability of catching a set

Proper set mining is based on poker mathematics, and you need to start from the probability of catching a set on the flop. The formula for such a calculation may seem complicated to those who have not studied probability theory. But by and large, you don’t have to understand it, the main thing is to remember the result. However, for clarity, we will still present the calculations.

Let us immediately note that in addition to a set, we will also be satisfied with hitting a full house or four of a kind on the flop. In other words, we are interested in how often we will catch not a specific set, but one or both of our outs. To find out, you must first calculate the probability of them NOT appearing by multiplying the probabilities of cards that are useless to us appearing in each of the three cells of the flop:

((48 /50) x (47 /49) x (46/48)) x 100% = 88.2%

What do the expressions in brackets mean? After we were dealt two cards, there were 50 cards left in the deck, each of which could go on the table. These fifty include our 2 outs and 48 cards that are useless to us. That is, the chance that the first card on the flop will be an unnecessary card is 48 to 50. For the second card on the flop, the chance is calculated the same way, but now we remove one card, since it is already on the table. Likewise for the third card of the flop.

Thus, we will achieve our goal in 100 - 88.2 = 11.8% of cases, that is, our chances of this are equal to 1 in 8.5.

Rule 20 in set mining

Now that we know the probability of hitting a set or better, how do we determine the situations that are suitable for set mining? First, let's look at a small example.

Hero, with a pair of fours, was raised by 200 chips from an opponent whose stack was left with 1,200 chips after the raise. The flop came A47. The opponent c-bet 350, Hero went all-in, the opponent called with AK and gave Hero the entire stack.

Did Hero play correctly? At first glance, yes, because he collected the maximum from the enemy. However, we should not forget that the effectiveness of decisions in poker is determined not in a specific hand, but over a distance.

Look, Hero will flop a set one out of 8.5 times. He won his opponent's remaining 1,200 chips in this hand, but the other 7.5 times he misses the set, he will lose 200 chips called preflop each time. For every 1200 he won with a set, he will lose 1500 without a set, that is, at a distance calling Hero preflop will cost him -300 on average: 8.5 = -35.3 chips.

Based on the above, the conclusion suggests itself that for a mathematically correct set mining it is necessary that after his raise, the opponent’s stack must remain at least 7.5 times more chips than we need to deliver preflop.

So, if in our example the opponent had 1600 chips left after his raise (8 times the bet), then if Hero was successful, he would win these 1600, and in all unsuccessful attempts he would lose the same 1500. At a distance, each such call would be preflop will bring him 100 on average: 8.5 = 11.8 chips.

But we wouldn't love poker so much if it were so simple math game. The point is that there are many factors that can prevent Hero from taking his opponent's ENTIRE stack when he flops a set.

Let's return to our example. What if the turn and river hit my opponent with a full house or quad? What if he didn't have AK, but AA or 77? What if he missed the flop and didn't play his entire stack against Hero's set?

As you can see, if you catch a set on the flop, you will not always be able to win all of your opponent’s chips, and sometimes you will even lose all of yours. This means that a ratio of 1 to 7.5 cannot be a basis for calling for set value.

It is almost impossible to take into account all possible factors in the calculations, so winning players use a ratio of 1 to 20 when doing set mining to be on the safe side.

It is also important to note that the size of the raise should be compared with the one in the hand (that is, with the smallest), and this will not always be the opponent’s stack. After all, even if in our example the opponent had at least 5000 left, Hero would not be able to take them all if he himself had, say, 2500 at that time.

Thus, the final Rule 20 will read like this:

To enter for set value, the effective stack must be 20 times the amount that needs to be called preflop.

Be sure to remember this simple rule every time you are going to catch a set.

Deviation from Rule 20

However, you will also encounter situations where you can slightly lower such strict requirements for calling for set value. These are all those cases when the likelihood that you will be able to rip big jackpot, initially increased.

Let’s say when in a hand there are not one, but several opponents playing against you. The more people there are, the more likely it is that one of them will catch top pair or some kind of draw. Multipot is a very profitable situation for set mining. For other hands suitable for multipot, read here.

It will also have a positive effect if your opponent plays . Such players will be much more likely to hit the flop solidly than loose players, which means they will be more willing to part with their stack.

You should also not forget that, even if you don’t catch a set, with middle pair you will sometimes take the pot on the flop from opponents who most likely didn’t hit it. For example, with a pair of nines on a 6J7 flop you will quite often have the strongest hand.

And in general, if you generally think that you are stronger than your opponent, and you know that in many cases you can outplay him postflop, then you can lower the bar a little.

Let's summarize the cases where Rule 20 can (but does not have to) be simplified to Rule 15 into one list:

• multipot
• game against TAG
• playing with position advantage postflop
• playing against a weak opponent
• your pocket is over 66

And the main thing to remember is that every time you call a set value bet that your effective stack does not exceed at least 20 (sometimes 15) times, you are initially taking a negative action. Regardless of whether you then win this hand or not. Good luck at the tables!